Saturday, 16 April 2016 00:00

Amazon Surges As Retailers Lag

This article was first published by Bespoke Investment Group Read The "Think B.I.G Blog"   Back in 2014, we created the Bespoke Death By Amazon Index.  The index tracks a list of traditional brick & mortar companies threatened by the rise of e-commerce.  We update this index (available on both a market cap-weighted and equal weight basis) every month, and we…
This article was first published by Bespoke Investment Group Read The "Think B.I.G Blog"   While the S&P 500 hasn’t quite taken out its May 2015 all-time high (it needs about 2% more of gains), the index’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio is set to make a new six-year high if market gains hold today.  Below is a chart showing this…
Thursday, 14 April 2016 00:00

Bullish Sentiment Declines

This article was first published by Bespoke Investment Group     Did individual investors not get the memo that the S&P 500 is up 2% in the last week? Normally, when stock prices rise, investor sentiment follows suit.  However, in this week’s survey of investor sentiment from AAII, bullish sentiment actually declined from 32.19% down to 27.85%.  That now makes…
Over the last six months, global financial stability risks increased as a result of the following developments: First, macroeconomic risks have risen, reflecting a weaker and more uncertain outlook for growth and inflation, and more subdued sentiment. These risks were highlighted yesterday at the World Economic Outlook press conference. Second, falling commodity prices and concerns about China’s economy have put…
Wednesday, 13 April 2016 00:00

Act Now, Act Together

Public finances have had a rough year. A new reality is emerging. Against this backdrop, countries need to act now to boost growth and build resilience. They must also be prepared to act together to fend off global risks.   Worsening public finances The April 2016 Fiscal Monitor shows that public debt continues to rise in every corner of the…
Wednesday, 13 April 2016 00:00

US 1Q16 GDP Growth: 0.1% Or 1.1%?

I recently wrote an article talking about US GDP growth expectations for 1Q16 in accordance with the GDPNow model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. According to the latest forecast by the model (April 8, 2016), US GDP growth for 1Q16 is likely to be 0.1% with growth expectations having slumped significantly in the recent past as indicated by…
The leading narrative in the foreign exchange markets is told and re-told to explain how the Japanese yen has surged this year despite an ever wilder monetary experiment pursued by the Abe government. The story seems plausible to many, and thus is deeply challenging for the backers of sound money principles. The financial TV commentators tell us that the yen…
Tuesday, 12 April 2016 00:00

Global Growth: Too Slow for Too Long

This article was first published in the iMF Direct Blog By Maurice Obstfeld Global growth continues, but at an increasingly disappointing pace that leaves the world economy more exposed to negative risks. Growth has been too slow for too long. The new World Economic Outlook released today anticipates a slight acceleration in growth this year, from 3.1 to 3.2 percent,…
This article was first published in the iMF Direct Blog By Jose Viñals, Simon Gray, and Kelly Eckhold   We support the introduction of negative policy rates by some central banks given the significant risks we see to the outlook for growth and inflation. Such bold policy action is unprecedented, and its effects over time will vary among countries. There have…
    Guest Article From Frank Holmes, CEO Of U.S. Global Investors   A little over 10 years ago, there were a dozen major domestic airlines. Following a wave of bankruptcies, the industry consolidated, and today four remain—American, Delta, United and Southwest. For the past couple of years, these newly-strengthened carriers, along with a full roster of regional and low-cost…