My Second Value Creator For 2016 On January 2, 2016, I discussed my first value creator for 2016 – Mallcom (India). The stock has remained largely sideways in turbulent markets and I continue to expect great days ahead for the company. In this article, I will be discussing my second value creator for 2016 (another company from the mid-cap space).…
Much has been discussed about a potential credit crisis in China and I believe that the worst might still not be over for the economy. From published data perspective, China’s manufacturing PMI remains below 50, indicating continued contraction. In my view, manufacturing PMI is likely to remain below 50 through 2016 with the global economy also heading towards a meaningful…
Saturday, 02 January 2016 00:00

Mallcom (India) Is A Potential Value Creator

My First Value Creator For 2016 The year 2015 presented several value creators to investors and most of the multibaggers were from the mid-cap and small-cap space. I continue to believe that 2016 and beyond will be years when mid-caps and small-caps provide stellar returns. Mallcom (India) is my first value creator idea for 2016 from the mid-cap space. The…
Saturday, 02 January 2016 00:00

Probability Of US Recession In 2016

The probability of US recession can be predicted by the Treasury spread and this article looks at the Treasury spread as of December 2015 to discuss the probability of recession. Before discussion the recession probability, I must mention here that there are internal factors that are likely to impact GDP growth and there are external factors that are also likely…
Saturday, 02 January 2016 00:00

Expect More Energy Sector Bankruptcies

I had opined in my earlier post that oil and gas prices are likely to remain depressed through 2016. As challenging times continue for the sector, I also expect increased bankruptcies. In particular, there are several exploration companies and offshore drillers that have leveraged significantly in good times. If depression persists in the sector, debt servicing will be increasingly difficult…
The year 2015 was among the worst for the oil & gas sector with energy prices slumping to multi-year lows. Oil price remained depressed as a result of the supply overhang coupled with weak consumption trend globally. The year 2016 is unlikely to be any different and I expect oil prices to remain sideways or lower. The chart below provides…
Tuesday, 18 August 2015 00:00

Bearish On Oil In One Chart

There seems to be no end to the bearish trend in oil price. While we remain bullish on oil price from a long-term perspective, there are strong reasons to remain bearish on oil for the near-term. In this article, we present one chart that provides a critical reason for being bearish on oil for 2015 and potentially into 2016. The…
Sunday, 23 November 2014 00:00

The PIIGS Debt Refinancing Wall

In one of our earlier articles, we showed that seven Euro-Area countries are already in deflation and we believe that the Euro-Area will slip into recession in 2015. Amidst the concerns related to deflation and recession, the PIIGS have significant sovereign debt repayment scheduled for 2015 as shown in the chart below.   Therefore, the year 2015 will be busy…
Saturday, 22 November 2014 00:00

Big Potential For Debt Capital Markets In India

With an investment friendly government in India, the economy is accelerating and we expect big changes over the next 5-10 years in terms of economic growth as well as the development of financial markets. In particular, we are bullish on the growth prospects for India’s debt capital market. As the chart below shows, India’s debt capital market penetration is way…
At Disruptive Investor, we are bullish on the long-term prospects for energy and industrial commodities demand in India. With the economy gathering steam, we believe that investors can consider exposure to select oil & gas exploration stocks as well as quality companies in the industrial commodity space. The chart below gives the per capita consumption of oil and industrial commodities…