The civilian unemployment rate in the United States has dipped to 6.3% as of May 2014 and that seems to be good news. We, at Disruptive Investor, are more concerned about the continued rise in number of people not in labor force. The chart below gives the number of people not in labor force as of May 2014. As many…
While the debate rages on the sustainability of the Brazil, Russia, China and India (BRIC) story, the Sovereign Wealth Funds allocation might provide an insight on the long-term outlook for BRIC. As the chart below shows, Sovereign Wealth Funds continued to flow into BRIC countries in 2013.     In the recent past, Turkey has also been one of the…
A good indicator of real economic activity is the money velocity. The money velocity in the United States is currently at a 60-year low as evident from the chart. The important question therefore arises – Can expansionary monetary policies help real economic activity?     The second chart, which gives the excess reserves of depository institutions with the Fed, can…
Sunday, 02 March 2014 00:00

The Real Unemployment Scenario in US

While the policymakers at the Fed are basking in glory that expansionary monetary policies are working, the ground reality is different. The headline unemployment rate does show a rosy picture with the unemployment rate at 6.6%, down from a peak of 10% in October 2009. However, the U6 rate still remains relatively high at 12.7%. Most importantly, this article will…
Friday, 10 January 2014 00:00

Disruptive Investor On The Global Economy

At Disruptive Investor, we intend to provide intelligent insights on the global economy. We believe that market participants derive minimal benefit from just looking at government published headline numbers related to inflation, unemployment and so on and so forth. A deeper analysis of data is needed to bring out the real picture of the economy or the job market. This…