Survey Overview - The Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook provides some very interesting insights on where the US economy and the corporate sector are headed. In my view, the corporate sector’s view on the economy is always more realistic as compared to the government. The chart below gives some of the key financial metrics outlook derived from the CFO survey…
An Ideal Scenario - When free markets and free economy is allowed to work, there are bound to be excesses in some sector of the economy and that usually translates into a self correction recessionary phase. The period of recession is certainly painful, but allows the system to cleanse off the excesses. When economic growth trends higher again, the growth…
In one of my recent articles, I had discussed on the biggest foreign holders of US Treasury securities. This article discusses the biggest holders of Treasury securities (within US and foreign) and the implications of the trend. The chart below gives the top seven holders of US Treasury securities as of December 2015.   The following points are worth noting…
When the Federal Reserves increased rates by 25 basis points in December 2015, it was referred to as an end to an era of “near-zero”” rates and the beginning of tighter monetary policies. However, the fed is still pursuing QE and expansionary monetary policies. The chart of the day explains how easy money continues to flow in the financial system.…
Overview - $6.7 Trillion in sovereign bonds were trading with negative yields as of February 2016 according to the data in the March 2016 “BIS Quarterly Review.” My View - In February 2016, Yellen mentioned that the option of negative interest rates was open, but unlikely. In my view, the world is moving towards negative interest rates and if global…
Sunday, 06 March 2016 00:00

Gold At $12,000 An Ounce Scenario

Scenario Analysis - This article discusses a scenario where gold can be priced at $12,000 an ounce or 10 times the current price of gold. Gold has regained some momentum and investor interest in 2016 with the precious metal gradually trending higher after prolonged period of sideways movement. I remain bullish on gold and I have written few articles to…
Sunday, 06 March 2016 00:00

Is China Dumping US Treasuries?

There is no doubt that China has been diversifying its reserves and I recently wrote an article that pointed to aggressive buying of gold by central banks of China and Russia. There has also been lot of discussion on China potentially doing away with US Treasuries. It would therefore be interesting to put forward data on China’s holdings of Treasuries…
The US federal debt has already swelled to $18 trillion and I recently discussed CBO estimates for the next decade that projects $10 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years. CBO estimates also project $1 trillion in Treasury debt servicing by 2025. If all this was not enough, the financial report of the United States government for 2015 shows…
Saturday, 05 March 2016 00:00

Is China Heading Towards Recession?

As China’s growth continues to slide, there is a fear that the country is potentially heading towards recession. It was reported on March 5, 2016 that China expects full year GDP growth to be in the range of 6.5% to 7.0%. However, if the trend in the country’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI is observed, there is a fear that growth…
Friday, 04 March 2016 00:00

Infographic On Asia's Thirst For Food

Agriculture is placing the biggest demands on water in Asia and the Pacific, as rising populations, rapid urbanization, and energy, industrial, and domestic use have left water stocks in a critical state. Note: This article was first published by the Asian Development Bank (www.adb.org)