Guest Article From Frank Holmes, CEO Of U.S. Global Investors   Sixteen. That’s the number of Republican presidential candidates who ended their campaigns since last summer, leaving only businessman Donald J. Trump as the presumptive GOP nominee. Love him or hate him, it’s time to come to terms with the reality that Trump’s name will likely be appearing on…
Latest economic data suggests that the global economy is recovering from the brink of recession, but investors need to remain cautious as it’s too early to say that global recession is unlikely in 2016. The chart below gives the global “Purchasing Managers Index” for the month of March 2016 and the composite PMI does indicate recovery after a big slump…
The civilian labor force participation rate in the United States has declined from 65.7% in January 2009 to 63.0% as of March 2016. The labor force participation rate remains at its lowest level since the early 1980s and it’s entirely likely that the participation rate will continue to decline in the coming decade. This article presents a chart on decomposition…
Several organizations globally estimate GDP growth for the near-term and the long-term. How useful are these forecasts to make an investment decision? This article uses the growth forecast by the International Monetary Authority (IMF) to underscore the point that GDP growth forecasts invariably fail to predict real economic growth. While investors watch these data points closely, they might help little…
Among the various factors that play an important role in the policymaker’s decision to increase interest rates, the dollar and its impact on exports is a key consideration. This article underscores the importance of dollar movement on exports driven growth and the key factors that will prevent the fed from increasing interest rates if the dollar remains relatively strong. Using…
For any central bank globally, labor market conditions along with inflation outlook is the key consideration for interest rate decisions. Further, good or bad labor market conditions have a huge impact on consumption driven growth, social unrest and pressure on government finances. After a big slump post the financial crisis of 2008-09, labor market conditions have improved globally (some more…
Thursday, 28 April 2016 10:42

How Will Markets React To GDP Numbers?

The advance GDP estimate is scheduled to be released today and this article discusses the various GDP growth rate scenarios and possible market reaction. The chart below gives the US GDP forecast for 1Q16 from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bloomberg consensus.     I would consider these as major…
  Guest Article From Frank Holmes, CEO Of U.S. Global Investors   I want to begin with a quote from a recent Cornerstone Macro report that succinctly summarizes the research firm’s view on growth prospects in emerging markets, China specifically. Emphasis is my own:   Our most out-of-consensus call this year is the belief that China, and by extension many…
In the recent past, I have written few articles under the “Focus Norway Edition” and the idea behind those articles was to analyze the Norwegian oil & gas industry and its impact on the economy. While it’s clear that the energy industry plays a crucial role in economic growth and prosperity, the chart of the day further underscores that view.…
  Guest Article From Frank Holmes, CEO Of U.S. Global Investors   Who says municipal bonds aren’t sexy? They were the top fixed-income asset class of 2015, compared to U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds, and they even outperformed the S&P 500 Index. Still not convinced? Check out the following ways short-term munis can make you scream “Oh yes!”   1.…